Offseason Power Rankings: State of West

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How tough is the Western Conference?
Only four West teams finished below .500 last season, and two of them should be much improved this year. The Memphis Grizzlies are getting basically everybody (including Ja Morant) back from injury, while the San Antonio Spurs added a couple of key veterans (including one of the best point guards in league history) around one of the best 20-year-olds we’ve ever seen.
Only one of the 11 teams that finished .500 or better has seemingly taken a big step backward. And that team – the LA Clippers – still has Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and a solid supporting cast.
So if your favorite team appears to be too low in the rankings below, it’s only because there are too many good teams in front of them.
For these offseason rankings, we’re looking at each conference separately, with the Eastern Conference rankings having been published last week. All stats refer to the 2023-24 regular season unless otherwise noted. Last week’s rank is based on how team’s finished in the playoffs, Play-In and regular season.
Previously…
OffRtg: Points scored per 100 possessions (League Rank)
DefRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions (League Rank)
NetRtg: Point differential per 100 possessions (League Rank)
Pace: Possessions per 48 minutes (League Rank)
The league averaged 114.5 points scored per 100 possessions and 99.2 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes last season.
NBA.com’s Power Rankings, released every Monday during the season, are just one man’s opinion. If you have an issue with the rankings, or have a question or comment for John Schuhmann, send him an e-mail or contact him via threads.
2023-24 record: 57-25
OffRtg: 118.3 (3) DefRtg: 111.0 (4) NetRtg: +7.3 (2) Pace: 100.9 (5)
Key addition(s): Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, Nikola Topic
Key departure(s): Josh Giddey
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Will they get more shots than their opponents?
Caruso appears to be a great fit, given that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams will be doing most of the ballhandling. The Thunder led the league in the percentage of their 3-point attempts (80%) that came off the catch and he shot 40.6% on catch-and-shoot 3s last season. With his menacing defense, the Thunder will be the favorite to lead the league in opponent turnover rate for a second straight year.
Despite leading the league in turnover differential last season, they still had fewer shooting opportunities than their opponents last season because they were one of two teams – the Wizards were the other – that ranked in the bottom five in both offensive and rebounding percentage. That’s where Hartenstein (along with some added strength from Chet Holmgren) comes in. He ranked fourth in offensive rebounding percentage (12.9%) among 288 players who averaged at least 15 minutes in 40 games or more.
2023-24 record: 57-25
OffRtg: 117.8 (5) DefRtg: 112.3 (8) NetRtg: +5.5 (4) Pace: 97.4 (26)
Key addition(s): Dario Saric, Russell Westbrook
Key departure(s): Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Jackson
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Is Christian Braun ready?
Braun averaged just 17 minutes in the playoffs, but is now the presumed starter with Caldwell-Pope’s departure. The offense should be fine as long as Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are healthy, but it may be tough for Braun to match Caldwell-Pope’s excellence on defense, where the Nuggets just had their best season (2.2 fewer points allowed per 100 possessions than the league average) in the 28 years for which we have play-by-play data.
Westbrook is a wildcard. He can certainly help the Nuggets in transition, where they ranked 23rd (19.4 points per game) last season. He’s also more of an off-ball cutter than Caldwell-Pope, so he might not be a terrible fit next to Jokic. More important may be that he keeps the Nuggets afloat when Jokic rests, with the Kia NBA MVP having had the league’s biggest on-off differential (minimum 1,000 minutes) in each of the last three seasons.
2023-24 record: 50-32
OffRtg: 117.0 (8) DefRtg: 114.9 (18) NetRtg: +2.1 (15) Pace: 100.6 (7)
Key addition(s): Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall
Key departure(s): Derrick Jones Jr., Josh Green, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Can their defense pick up where it left off?
The Mavs ranked sixth defensively over that 21-7 stretch, up from 22nd prior to the additions of Gafford and Washington. Doncic and Kyrie Irving were a part of that improvement, but it will be fascinating to see how well this team defends with Doncic, Irving and Thompson all on the floor together. Jones will be missed on that end of the floor; The Mavs allowed just 99.7 points per 100 possessions in his 283 regular season minutes alongside Gafford and Washington, but they allowed 120.0 per 100 in 200 minutes with Gafford and Washington on the floor without Jones.
Thompson should get plenty of open looks in this offense, though. His catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage of 39.2% over his three post-injury seasons is lower than it was in the three seasons prior (43.0%), but still strong and likely to earn the respect of opposing defenses.
2023-24 record: 56-26
OffRtg: 114.6 (17) DefRtg: 108.4 (1) NetRtg: +6.3 (3) Pace: 97.8 (23)
Key addition(s): Rob Dillingham, Joe Ingles
Key departure(s): Kyle Anderson
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How much better does Anthony Edwards get?
Edwards has seen a jump in true shooting percentage (scoring efficiency) every season he’s been in the league, but his mark of 57.5% last season still ranked just 29th among 50 players with a usage rate of 25% or higher. His assist/turnover ratio (1.68) ranked 35th among that same group. He was more efficient in both regards in the playoffs, and there’s no reason why he won’t keep getting better and push the Wolves into the top half of the league offensively.
You have to wonder how much longer Conley (37 in October) can hold up as a starter, though he shot 95-for-208 (45.7%) on pull-up 3-pointers, the best mark for a player with at least 100 attempts in the 11 seasons for which we have tracking data. But the defense should still be there, despite the loss of a critical contributor (Anderson) on that end of the floor.
2023-24 record: 49-33
OffRtg: 116.8 (10) DefRtg: 113.7 (13) NetRtg: +3.1 (8) Pace: 99.0 (15)
Key addition(s): Tyus Jones, Monte Morris, Mason Plumlee
Key departure(s): Eric Gordon, Drew Eubanks
Coaching change: Frank Vogel out, Mike Budenholzer in
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How much will a point guard help?
The Suns return a starting lineup that outscored opponents by 11.1 points per 100 possessions, the fourth best mark among 21 lineups that played at least 300 minutes. And as noted above, they had a great offense against the league’s best defenses.
But Jones was an incredible pick-up on a minimum contract, and he can help them on both ends of the floor. Not only has he led the league in assist/turnover ratio in each of the last six seasons, but he’s one of two players – Jimmy Butler is the other – that have had more steals than personal fouls in each of the last six. Most important may be taking some of the playmaking burden off Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, allowing those guys to be better on both ends of the floor.
2023-24 record: 49-33
OffRtg: 116.5 (11) DefRtg: 111.9 (6) NetRtg: +4.6 (6) Pace: 98.7 (16)
Key addition(s): Dejounte Murray
Key departure(s): Jonas Valanciunas, Dyson Daniels, Naji Marshall, Larry Nance
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Is this it?
At this point, the Pelicans have Daniel Theis, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and a couple of rookies at the center spot. They could certainly be planning on playing Zion Williamson more at the five, having outscored their opponents by 8.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor without Valanciunas, Nance or Cody Zeller last season.
But that wasn’t a very big sample size: just 366 total minutes over Williamson’s 70 games (5.2 minutes per game). Playing him more at center would be more minutes with their best players on the floor. (Right now, if Murray, Williamson and Theis are starters, then two of CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones and Trey Murphy are coming off the bench.) But that could be more taxing on Williamson, as he’d probably be defending more pick-and-rolls, and it seems like this team will need to trade a forward for another big man at some point.
2023-24 record: 46-36
OffRtg: 116.9 (9) DefRtg: 114.5 (15) NetRtg: +2.4 (13) Pace: 99.9 (11)
Key addition(s): De’Anthony Melton, Kyle Anderson, Buddy Hield
Key departure(s): Chris Paul, Klay Thompson, Dario Saric
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Might they have upgraded this summer?
Thompson, Green and Stephen Curry had been together for 12 seasons and four championships, so losing Thompson is obviously an emotional blow, and it will be very strange seeing him in another uniform in October. But the Warriors might have gotten better this summer, with Anderson, Hield and Melton all seemingly good fits in their system. Hield has been a better shooter both inside and outside the arc than Thompson in each of the last two seasons (though Thompson probably takes tougher shots).
The Warriors could still use a little more size, and Lauri Markkanen would obviously be another upgrade if they’re willing to sacrifice some of their future and work out a trade with the Jazz. Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski showed a ton of promise (and provided useful production) last season, but neither is nearly as special a player as either of the two championship cornerstones still left on the roster. So it would be a tough choice to make if the ball is in the Warriors’ court.
2023-24 record: 46-36
OffRtg: 116.2 (13) DefRtg: 114.4 (14) NetRtg: +1.8 (16) Pace: 99.5 (14)
Key addition(s): DeMar DeRozan
Key departure(s): Harrison Barnes, Davion Mitchell
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Does DeRozan fit here?
The 15-year veteran, who turns 35 on Wednesday, can still get buckets and get to the line, and the Kings were worse in clutch games last season (20-19 with the league’s 18th-ranked clutch offense) than they were otherwise (26-17). But it may be a challenge for the player who ranks fourth in total isolations over the last three years (according to Second Spectrum tracking) to fit in with a team that moves the ball as much as the Kings.
Perhaps they stagger minutes so DeRozan is the first starter to sub out and then comes back to run the second unit. If they can have the best of both worlds while not taking a step backward defensively (more minutes for Keon Ellis would help in that regard), the Kings should stay in the mix for a top eight spot in the West.
2023-24 record: 51-31
OffRtg: 117.9 (4) DefRtg: 114.6 (16) NetRtg: +3.4 (7) Pace: 97.9 (20)
Key addition(s): Derrick Jones Jr., Kris Dunn, Nicolas Batum
Key departure(s): Paul George, Russell Westbrook, Mason Plumlee
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Can they play top 10 defense again?
The Clippers had top 10 defenses in each of the first three seasons with George and Leonard, even though the two stars played 31 and zero games respectively in that third season (2021-22). But they’ve been in the middle of the pack (17th and 16th) defensively in each of the past two seasons.
George is a terrific defender, but Batum, Dunn and Jones can all help the Clips on that end of the floor. The offense will likely take a step backward; the Clippers scored just 113.3 points per 100 possessions (and were outscored by 3.1 per 100) in 357 minutes with Leonard and James Harden on the floor without George last season. But if the defense can return to the top 10, this team will still be a tough out.
2023-24 record: 27-55
OffRtg: 106.8 (30) DefRtg: 113.7 (12) NetRtg: -6.9 (26) Pace: 98.7 (17)
Key addition(s): Zach Edey
Key departure(s): Ziaire Williams
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Do they have the right mix?
The Grizzlies just needed to get healthy. They’ve got six competent vets, along with young guys like Santi Aldama, GG Jackson II and Vince Williams Jr. who can contribute to a winning team. And even with all the injuries last season, they still had a strong defense.
But with Marcus Smart being one of those vets and Jaren Jackson Jr. likely to play more at the five than in previous (competitive) seasons, it will be a new mix. As noted above, no Grizzlies lineup played more than 68 minutes last season. But they did play 463 minutes with at least three of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Smart and Jackson on the floor, and they were outscored by 2.8 points per 100 possessions in those minutes. The Grizzlies aren’t just picking up where they left off 15 months ago.
2023-24 record: 41-41
OffRtg: 113.7 (20) DefRtg: 112.8 (10) NetRtg: +0.9 (18) Pace: 99.6 (13)
Key addition(s): Reed Sheppard
Key departure(s): N/A
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Can their offensive improvement carry over?
The Rockets’ overall improvement last season was mostly about their defense, which they established early. But while the league overall was much worse offensively (113.1 points scored per 100 possessions) after the All-Star break than it was before the break (115.2) last season, the Rockets were better. After ranking 23rd offensively before the break (113.2), they ranked 15th after it (114.5), with that being the fourth biggest jump in points scored per 100 possessions.
The improvement came from a drop in turnovers, a jump in offensive rebounding percentage and the players you’d hope it would come from. Jalen Green and Amen Thompson had a combined true shooting percentage of 57.5% (right at the league average) after the break, up from 53.2% (well below the league average) before it. If they can pick up where they left off or get better after a summer of work, the Rockets might avoid tying the longest playoff drought in franchise history (five years).
2023-24 record: 47-35
OffRtg: 115.4 (15) DefRtg: 114.8 (17) NetRtg: +0.6 (19) Pace: 101.4 (4)
Key addition(s): Dalton Knecht
Key departure(s): Taurean Prince
Coaching change: Darvin Ham out, JJ Redick in
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Is there a path to improvement?
Knecht was a fifth-year senior and is two years older than third-year guard Max Christie, so he could certainly be ready to contribute right away. But it’s hard to see how the Lakers are better than they were last season, when James (71) and Davis (76) each played more than 70 games.
We’ll see how Redick changes things up. Improving on that shooting-opportunity discrepancy by putting more emphasis on offensive rebounding (the Lakers ranked 29th in offensive rebounding percentage last season) could make a difference, and a healthier Jarred Vanderbilt (just 29 games played last season) would certainly help in that regard.
2023-24 record: 22-60
OffRtg: 109.3 (26) DefRtg: 115.6 (21) NetRtg: -6.4 (25) Pace: 101.8 (3)
Key addition(s): Harrison Barnes, Chris Paul, Stephon Castle
Key departure(s): N/A
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How real were those on-court numbers?
That last bullet point suggests that if you put some competent players around Wembanyama, the Spurs are awesome. And they’ll have a couple of more competent players on the roster this season. But some of that positive data was built up against other bad teams; Wembanyama was a plus-41 in just 53 minutes over two games against Portland, for example. And the Spurs were outscored by 5.7 points per 100 possessions in his 1,509 minutes against the 19 teams that finished at or above .500.
The 20-year-old is absolutely an impact player, but it’s a long way from 22-60 (and ranking in the bottom 10 on both ends of the floor) to beating good teams and contending for a playoff spot. The Spurs will be better this season, but how much better?
2023-24 record: 31-51
OffRtg: 114.5 (18) DefRtg: 119.6 (30) NetRtg: -5.1 (23) Pace: 100.3 (10)
Key addition(s): Cody Williams
Key departure(s): Kris Dunn
Three numbers to know:
Key question: Will they keep Lauri Markkanen?
The Jazz actually outscored their opponents with Markkanen on the floor last season, but they were brutal (minus-9.5 points per 100 possessions) when he was off the floor. So a trade (depending on what they got back) could drop them down in the range of 15-20 wins.
Beyond the Markkanen decision, the focus will likely be on the development of second-year players Keyonte George and Taylor Hendricks. The former shot just 45.6% inside the arc (third worst among 161 players with at least 300 2-point attempts), while the latter played less than 900 minutes as a rookie.
2023-24 record: 21-61
OffRtg: 107.6 (29) DefRtg: 116.6 (23) NetRtg: -9.0 (28) Pace: 97.9 (21)
Key addition(s): Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan
Key departure(s): Malcolm Brogdon
Three numbers to know:
Key question: How much does Scoot Henderson improve?
The two teams that got more than 50% of their minutes from rookies or second-year players in 2022-23 – Houston and Oklahoma City – were the league’s two most improved teams last season. But the Blazers didn’t make big changes like the Rockets a year ago, and they (seemingly) don’t have stars on the level of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams.
But they do have a pair of guards – Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe – who could make big leaps in the next nine months. Henderson has nowhere to go but up given how much he struggled as a rookie, ranking last in effective field goal percentage among 174 players with 500 field goal attempts) and having the second worst on-court NetRtg among 222 players who averaged at least 20 minutes per game. It would be surprising if this wasn’t a fourth straight season in the bottom three in the Western Conference, but serious progress from the young guards would make the long-term outlook a lot brighter.